There is much anticipation around a potential Ethereum ETF being approved by the SEC. Some experts predict there is about a 75% chance of approval if an application is submitted in May. The timing could be good for Ethereum approval with factors like the upcoming "Merge" to a proof-of-stake consensus model and a potential rate cut aligned. The SEC has also set a precedent of approval with the recent Bitcoin ETFs. Still, uncertainty remains as Ethereum is more complex and the SEC could classify it as a security rather than a commodity.
Factors Impacting Bitcoin Price and the Possibility of $30k
With Bitcoin hovering around $40k, some traders like Arthur Hayes speculate it could still fall to $30k or lower. There are several geopolitical issues like Treasury debt continuing to balloon that could negatively impact crypto prices. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell also faces tough choices between addressing high inflation or potential banking crises. For now, Powell will likely try to just talk hawkish without raising rates significantly. If inflation persists, Democrats may also struggle in midterm elections. Once Bitcoin bottoms, traders like Hayes plan to buy altcoins like Solana anticipating the next bull cycle.
Congress Pushing Crypto Regulation and Clarity
In Congress, crypto advocates like Rep. Patrick McHenry are still actively pushing for legislation around digital assets even with the looming 2024 elections. There is urgency for establishing market structure and regulatory clarity, especially after the drawn-out Bitcoin ETF approval process. With more institutions exposed to crypto now, it is even more important to remedy problems and inconsistencies through actual laws. Passing bipartisan cryptocurrency regulation could be one of the last major deals Congress makes before the 2024 campaigns ramp up.
Trading Crypto is a Marathon Requiring Patience
Veteran trader Peter Brandt emphasized that successfully trading crypto takes patience. Those who get rich quick often lose money even faster if they lack discipline. It takes 3-5 years of experiencing market volatility and accumulating enough knowledge to generate consistent returns. Crypto should be viewed as a speculative marathon rather than a sprint. Maintaining good habits and self-control, even during bull markets and hype cycles, is key to long-term prosperity. For newcomers, patience and keeping expectations modest will lead to the best results.
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