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Exclusive | March Most Important Month For Bitcoin Outlook

Exclusive | March Most Important Month For Bitcoin Outlook

Key sentiment trends looming and new data on Eth and BTC

The IDES of March for Bitcoin?

Will the Ides of March bring the death of the connection to traditional markets, or are we set for a new renaissance of investing that could set up a volatile but exciting spring and summer? The latest sentiment data and insights from the Crypto Power Index point to some interesting aspects of where BTC and ETH could go in the rainy month.

Analysts are split on the current conditions, with some analyzing the 30-year US Treasuries yield of 3.92% as a catalyst, but even with this - the poll of 10K votes showed selling was still the play. The resulting rise in bond yields has also upset a rally in the stock market, with the S&P 500 losing 2.7 percent in the past week. “We’ve had a reality check,” said Michael Metcalfe, head of the macro strategy at State Street, adding that the easing of monetary policy expected by markets a few weeks ago “looked a little fanciful”.

Others are looking to the trendlines for historical trading patterns and global liquidity, which could be on deck to slow over the rest of March - if this does happen, Bitcoin could likely hold a new channel between 21K and 24K.

What could lead the markets into the Summer?

A whopping 80% of American adults believe the financial system favors those with “powerful interests,” while 20% currently own cryptocurrency — a new survey has revealed.

Commissioned by crypto exchange Coinbase, the February online survey of more than 2,000 American adults found that 80% of respondents said the “global financial system unfairly favors powerful interests,” while 67% have called for “major changes” or a “complete overhaul” of the financial system.

Growth Trends were signaled several days before the move to $25K

Follow the sentiment closely as we start to hit a range for Bitcoin and ETH - the biggest news is the growth in the under 40 investors, with almost 30% of those active investors investing in digital assets and Bitcoin. This will be one of the new markers we track on the CPI this year - which could identify an entirely new narrative for investing in risk assets vs. the traditional markets.

What are the Indicators to Watch Now?

  1. Continued separation of a new demographic-based investor that has, for the first time, started to detach from the traditional finance systems.

  2. China pushes more into building a new economy, and timing for them could be critical to the recovery of the US should we slide into a recession.

  3. Jobs are much softer than many think - the issue is most are not releasing employees since it was so hard to get them during the pandemic.

  4. Long-term sentiment is looking more positive on Altcoins and NFT projects - but will the paper hands return if the market gets pressure

  5. Expect a 3200 Stockmarket shift and a potential detachment from crypto

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PBN3’s Substack
PBN3’s Substack Podcast
This is a Substack ONLY exclusive podcast available to Diamond Circle Plus Members. Hosted by Paul Barron and Kyle Willson, talking about the future of Web3, blockchain, and crypto. You will also get deep-dive data analysis on our Crypto Power Index and Paul's market analysis on a variety of technology topics.